Thursday, 22 October 2026

New Fossil Confirms a Human Ancestor Appeared 200,000 Years Earlier Than Expected

22 Oct. 2026, By D. Nield

A replica of a Homo erectus skull. 
(Attie Gerber/iStockphoto/Getty Images)

The fossil record shows that our Homo erectus ancestors were the first hominins to show signs of adapting to life on the ground, with longer legs and shorter arms emerging (the name translates to 'upright human').

It's therefore important that anthropologists can date the species correctly – and a new fossil analysis from an international team of researchers, published in the Annals of Human Biology, pushes back the emergence of these proto-people by about 200,000 years.

Imagine archaeologists of the distant future digging up the first iPhone and finding it wasn't invented in 2007, as previously assumed, but appeared in the time of Neanderthals and woolly mammoths. That's the sort of timescale we're talking about.

The discovery comes from the Drimolen Main Quarry near Johannesburg in South Africa, a hugely significant site for early humans known as the 'Cradle of Humankind'. What's more, the study includes additional findings for a more distant ancient human relative.

"This paper publishes a new adult fossil attributed to Homo erectus, DNH 127, providing further confirmation that this species first appeared in southern Africa 2 million years ago," says archaeologist Jesse Martin, from La Trobe University in Australia.

The adjusted timeline isn't completely new, because a skull fragment designated as DNH 134 had already been dated to the same period.

However, DNH 134 belonged to a young child, making comparisons with adults tricky.


Researchers have found over 100 fossil fragments at the Drimolen Main Quarry site. 
(Martin et al., Ann. Hum. Biol., 2026)



A total of 18 fossils were analyzed in this latest research, with the physical characteristics of the bones used to identify each species, and geological techniques, including radioactive dating, used to determine the age of the fossils.

Besides the single DNH 127 fossil for H. erectus, the team also linked 14 fossils to another hominin, Paranthropus robustus. This ancient relative is farther from us than H. erectus on the family tree, and had heavy jaws and big teeth for processing food that was hard and tough.

At the same time as H. erectus was evolving larger brains and smaller teeth, the teeth of P. robustus were getting bigger, and their chewing muscles were getting stronger (shown by jaw shapes).

Ultimately, it would be the H. erectus lineage that survived.

"These two human species shared the same landscape and are both preserved in the Drimolen cave," says Martin.

"While we know that Homo erectus and the lineage leading to us was ultimately the successful one, 2 million years ago P. robustus outnumbered Homo erectus at Drimolen by more than 10 to one."

The P. robustus discoveries back up the idea that the species was evolving over time. Other fossils from the same species found in other locations suggested larger, stronger hominins, a sign of the species changing.

Overall, the new P. robustus fossils revealed some characteristics in jaw structure that hadn't been seen before, and several areas of variation.

"The large number of fossils from Drimolen, some of which are published in this paper, allow an unprecedented insight into the micro-evolutionary changes that shaped human ancestors," says Martin.


The DNH 127 fragment from different angles. 
(Martin et al., Ann. Hum. Biol., 2026)



We already knew ancient human ancestry was complicated, with multiple species overlapping in different places rather than following along one after another. This latest study adds some clarity for two species in the Drimolen region.

It's worth bearing in mind that the fossils here are relatively small fragments, and further investigation will be required to confirm the presence of H. erectus and P. robustus this far back in time. The good news is there are a lot of discovered fossils to study at this site, and most likely more to be dug up.

There may well be more to find here to help understand why the P. robustus evolutionary line eventually died out, and ultimately, H. erectus likely led to modern-day humans.

"During this time period it was our [H. erectus] ancestors that looked like the outside long-odds chance to survive," says Martin.


The birth of Modern Man
https://chuckincardinal.blogspot.com/

One-Quarter of Data Centers Are Located in Water-Stressed Areas, Study Shows

22 Oct. 2026, By D. Nield

(jose sanchez/500px/Getty Images)

Data centers need water to stay cool and functional, and lots of it: The larger facilities can consume as much water a day as a town of 50,000 people, and because much of the cooling involves evaporation, freshwater is often preferred.

That raises serious questions about the environmental impact of the cloud compute we use to run AI queries, host photos and videos, stream music, and all the rest. Researchers are trying to get a handle on what the impacts on water usage actually are.

In a new study published in Environmental Science & Technology, researchers led by a team from the Carnegie Institution for Science in the US mapped the location of the 9,347 currently identified data centers worldwide.

When the local water conditions of all these sites were analyzed, the team found that around 25 percent of data centers are in areas where there's a water gap during at least one month of the year – that's when water demand outstrips supply.


2,315 of 9,347 data centers are in water-stressed areas. 
(Rosa et al., Environ. Sci. Technol., 2026)



Based on climate models and 3 °C (5.4 °F) of average global temperature rise from 1900 levels, the number of water-stressed data center locations would rise to 33 percent within as little as 10 years, the researchers found.

"These facilities are not landing in empty landscapes," says environmental scientist Lorenzo Rosa, from the Carnegie Institution for Science. "They are landing on top of the water supply of cities and farms."

While electricity can be spread across long distances through a power grid, the same can't be said for water. It typically needs to be sourced locally, which means the local conditions at sites chosen for data centers really do matter.

Water typically gets pulled from lakes, rivers, and aquifers – which can all vary seasonally in terms of the water they supply.

"The energy footprint of data centers has been quantified in detail because electricity is metered and reported," says Rosa. "Water scarcity is measured locally, inconsistently, and often not at all."

"So, we built the map because it did not exist."

The researchers plotted all of the world's data centers on a map. 
(Rosa et al., Environ. Sci. Technol., 2026)

The map showed that 41 percent of global data centers are competing directly with cities and municipalities for their water, while for another 28 percent of sites the primary water use is for agriculture.

For 523 facilities – that's a little over 5 percent of the total – there are already water gaps for at least 9 months of the year.

There were differences in terms of climate change impact too. Most data centers pushed beyond the water gap threshold by temperature rises would be in the US, the modeling showed, while in countries such as the UK and Germany there wouldn't be much change.

"Data centers typically have the financial capacity and institutional priority to secure water supplies whenever water is available," write the researchers in their published paper.

"As a result, the primary risk may not be to data center operations themselves but to other water users within the same basins."

The researchers note that information on data center water usage remains limited – the giant tech companies involved are reticent to share the exact level of demand these facilities are putting on our natural resources.

More accountable reporting would definitely help, which might require intervention from regulators and governments.

There is some positivity from the researchers at the end of their paper, though, pointing to efforts to use wastewater and treated seawater in place of freshwater, as well as improvements in data center heat management. What's clear is that changes are needed before the data center water drain gets worse.

"The extent to which water-stress exposure translates into operational impacts for data centers themselves or into measurable consequences for other water users remains an open question to address," write the researchers.

"Ensuring data center long-term viability will require siting and governance choices that account for local hydrological limits."


The birth of modern Man
https://chuckincardinal.blogspot.com/

Scientists Found a Bizarre Pattern in Over 1,000 Cases of Alleged Human Reincarnation

21 Oct. 2026, By P. Dockrill

(Donald Iain Smith/Moment RF/Getty Images)

Over 30 percent of Americans believe in the concept of reincarnation, the notion that people who die will be reborn again in this world.

While there's no firm scientific evidence suggesting that it actually happens – nor of what happens to our consciousness after we die – the study of reincarnation, and our beliefs about it, is still a serious focus of scientific research.

For decades, in fact, researchers have investigated what's known as Cases of the Reincarnation Type (CORT) – instances in which people, predominantly children, appear to report memories and details of somebody else's life.

Since the 1960s, researchers at the University of Virginia's Division of Perceptual Studies have collected information on thousands of these strange cases, representing the largest dataset of its kind.

Now, a new analysis of that trove of data has revealed a striking pattern in these mysterious episodes.
In cases where the identified deceased individual died suddenly or unexpectedly, the "intermission time" – the amount of time between their death and the birth of the child recalling their life – was significantly shorter than in cases where the death wasn't unexpected.

The findings, reported in Psychology of Consciousness: Theory, Research, and Practice, can't really be explained, researchers say.

"This is the largest systematic study to date of temporal patterns in reported past-life memories," says lead author and cognitive neuroscience researcher Saeedeh Sadeghi from the University of Virginia.

"Individual cases can leave room for different interpretations, but patterns across many cases are much harder to explain as exaggeration, fantasy or fabrication."

In their study, researchers analyzed every case in the Division of Perceptual Studies' CORT archive where investigators had been able to identify a named deceased individual (aka "Past Person") whose life and biographical details corresponded to statements collected from children who supposedly remembered things about the Past Person's life.

"Trained investigators conducted comprehensive interviews with multiple informants for each case, such as the child, parents, close relatives, and sometimes family friends and neighbors," the researchers write.

"Investigators systematically evaluated evidence from multiple sources … to systematically explore conventional explanations of the child's statements as well as the possibility of anomalous ones."


"These results do not support the idea that social beliefs are driving this pattern." (Cavan Images/Getty Images)



The researchers analyzed 1,678 cases involving an ostensibly identified Past Person, finding that the median intermission time was 16 months among the 1,319 cases with available timing data.

But the more unexpected the death was – whether due to an accident, violence, or a sudden medical crisis – the shorter the intermission time tended to be.

In cases where the death was completely unexpected, the median intermission time was only 12 months, reflecting a roughly 43 percent reduction from the most anticipated deaths (21 months).

What's more, the effect remained when the researchers accounted for a range of other factors, including the quality of the verified information, the level of accuracy of children's statements, prior acquaintance between families, social status, and religious beliefs.

"The effect remained even after we accounted for several cultural and psychological factors, and it was actually stronger in families whose religions did not support reincarnation," says social psychologist Philip Cozzolino of the University of Virginia.

"These results do not support the idea that social beliefs are driving this pattern."

Of course, none of this should be taken as evidence that reincarnation necessarily occurred in these instances, and the researchers acknowledge that the strength of the observed association was modest, with death unexpectedness accounting for only about 2–3 percent of the variance in intermission time.

Still, the fact that the pattern can be seen in the data is hard to explain, the researchers say, noting it's not something that can be accounted for by existing psychosocial mechanisms.

"The noteworthy finding is not that death circumstances strongly predict intermission time, but that they predict it at all – despite the absence of an established conventional mechanism linking the two," the team explains.

While that's the case, the researchers observe that many cultural and religious traditions from around the world are imbued with concepts that treat unexpected deaths as leaving unfinished business on the part of the deceased.

"Across a number of reincarnation-oriented traditions – including Hindu, Buddhist, and Indigenous North American frameworks – abrupt or premature death may leave unresolved intentions, attachments, or obligations, creating a stronger impetus toward rebirth," the researchers write.

Even outside the scope of reincarnation belief, many cultures view people who die violently or suddenly as remaining more closely connected to the living world.

We don't know yet whether these kinds of cultural beliefs somehow influence the patterns observed in reported past-life memories, but future research into this strange phenomenon might provide some answers.

"Is this evidence of anything metaphysical? The data are observational and we're careful to stay agnostic about mechanism," Sadeghi says.

"What I can say is that the pattern is real in the data, and not readily explained by cultural and psychological factors we examined – which, to me, is a reason to keep looking, not to look away."


The Life of Earth
https://chuckincardinal.blogspot.com/

Wednesday, 21 October 2026

Mitochondria Are Not Just Powerhouses, They're Running the Entire Body

Anton Petrov, 9 Oct 2026

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUyvFMIGynw&t=47s



The Life of Earth
https://chuckincardinal.blogspot.com/


Human Neurons Grew Inside a Living Mouse Brain With Bizarre Results

Anton Petrov, 15 Oct 2026




The Life of Earth
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Scientists Have Reconstructed The Face of The Oldest Known Homo Sapiens, And It Looks Very Familiar

21 Oct. 2026, By E. Öz

(Cícero Moraes)

Scientists have used human fossils from Morocco to create a digital face from around 315,000 years ago.

The result offers a glimpse of what some of the earliest known members of our species might have looked like.

Despite its strong features and projecting jaw, the face would not seem entirely out of place today.

"As for the individual from Jebel Irhoud, he might go unnoticed in a crowd, but a closer look would reveal something that sets him apart from the rest – most notably his robust features and a projecting jaw," 3D designer Cícero Moraes told ScienceAlert.


Different renderings of a face modeled from the approximately 315,000-year-old Jebel Irhoud fossils. Hair and skin pigmentation involve artistic interpretation. 
(Cícero Moraes)



The story behind that face began in the early 1960s, when a worker extracting minerals at Jebel Irhoud discovered a skull. Scientists initially thought it belonged to an African Neanderthal who lived roughly 40,000 years ago.

Later excavations uncovered more human remains and stone tools. As researchers examined the finds, their understanding of both the people and their age changed.

In 2017, two studies identified the remains as early members of our own species, Homo sapiens. Dating work placed the fossil-bearing layer at approximately 315,000 years old, with an uncertainty of about 34,000 years.

The discoveries pushed back the known history of our species by around 100,000 years, making the Jebel Irhoud remains the oldest known Homo sapiens fossils found to date. The same fossils now form the basis of the facial approximation.

There was no complete skull from a single person to work with. Scientists at the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology had combined different fossil specimens into a more complete digital skull.


An artistic rendering of the Jebel Irhoud facial approximation. Skin pigmentation, hair, and facial hair cannot be determined directly from the fossils. 
(Cícero Moraes)



Most of its braincase and upper face came from the original skull, known as Irhoud 1.

Missing parts, including the lower jaw and dental material, came from other remains found in the same archaeological layer. The resulting face therefore cannot be treated as an exact portrait of one individual.

Moraes considered the fit between those components convincing.

"The mandible and teeth, which belong to another individual, fit remarkably well," Moraes said. "Therefore, even if the original mandible were found, it is very likely that the skull would not differ from its current configuration."

His team started with images and video of the composite skull released alongside the 2017 research. They extracted video frames and used overlapping views to calculate a three-dimensional skull model, checking its scale against published measurements.

They then needed to estimate the face covering those bones.

For this, they used a CT scan of an anonymous modern adult, which showed the skull and surrounding tissues. On the computer, they reshaped the donor's skull to match the ancient model. The facial tissues changed with it, providing a starting point for the appearance.


Images showing how the team reconstructed the skull digitally and modeled the space that once held the brain.
 Cícero Moraes; skull imagery: (Philipp Gunz, MPI EVA Leipzig / CC BY-SA 2.0)



Measurements of tissue thickness in living people helped refine the result, using the free, open-source software Blender and its OrtogOnBlender tools. This isn't a one-off technique invented for this skull – the same anatomical deformation method has been developed and tested since at least 2013.

The bones still do most of the work. No skin or muscle survives from these ancient people to check the final face against, and the soft-tissue thickness data have to come from modern humans – a necessary stand-in, not a claim that ancient and modern anatomy are the same.

The researchers also checked the skull model's internal dimensions. Its cranial cavity measured 1,364 milliliters, close to an earlier estimate of 1,375 milliliters calculated from CT data of the fossil. That agreement supports the skull model's proportions, although it cannot establish how accurately the face has been reproduced.

The finished images come in two forms: grayscale renderings without hair, and a colored version with skin pigmentation, hair, and facial hair.

"Regarding subjectivity, it is fair to say that the colorized image, complete with facial hair, is the most artistic version and contains fewer scientifically robust features," Moraes explained.

Those details cannot be read directly from the fossils. The grayscale images leave them out so viewers can examine the estimated facial shape.

Earlier analyses of the fossils identified a modern-looking face alongside an archaic-looking braincase, suggesting that the features of present-day humans developed at different times.

For Moraes, one of the most anticipated moments comes before the finishing touches, when "the basic features first emerge on the computer screen."


The birth of modern Man
https://chuckincardinal.blogspot.com/

Tuesday, 20 October 2026

Oldest Known Spear Attack May Be Found in 75,000-Year-Old Neanderthal Remains

16 Oct. 2026, By P. Dockrill

The left scapula of Shanidar A.
 (University of Cambridge)

When the end came, it must have been very painful.

In a moment of violence roughly 75,000 years ago, something sharp pierced the body of the victim, known only as Shanidar A, an adult Neanderthal estimated to be 45 years old.

The deadly injury left a gaping 15-millimeter-wide hole in Shanidar A's left shoulder blade.

We can't say for sure what made that hole, but in a new study in Scientific Reports, researchers suggest it was probably a spear, meaning this could be the earliest known example of an interpersonal spear attack in the hominin fossil record.

"The position of the wound and the force required to push it right through the Neanderthal's body bear the hallmarks of an intended kill shot directed towards the heart," says paleoanthropologist Emma Pomeroy from Cambridge University.

In their study, researchers analyzed the remains of Shanidar A, which were excavated in 2019 and 2022 from Shanidar Cave in Iraqi Kurdistan, one of the world's most important archaeological sites for understanding Neanderthal behavior, dating back to fossil discoveries that began in the 1950s.


The front (left) and back (right) views of the Shanidar A scapula.
 (Dr Emma Pomeroy)



The newly identified Shanidar A, whose sex remains unknown, is one of 13 Neanderthal individuals whose remains have been found in the cave, some with signs of deliberate burial, which has helped to reshape our understanding of Neanderthals, revealing evidence of specific cultural and funerary behaviors.

The most famous example of this – the symbolic "flower burial" theory, proposed in the 1970s after pollen was found in a grave – has since been challenged by some in the archaeological community, who argue animal activity may better explain the pollen.

But many agree that the repeated burials in the same spots in Shanidar Cave mean something very important about how Neanderthals laid their fallen to rest.

"The repeated use of a single circumscribed space to deposit the dead within a relatively short time-span (likely within generations…) is difficult to explain except in terms of intentional patterned behavior," the researchers write in their paper.

"The highly restricted area within which the cluster was deposited points to specific meaning being attached to this location, rather than pure practicality or sentiment."


View of the entrance to Shanidar Cave in Iraqi Kurdistan. 
(Prof Graeme Barker)



The discovery of Shanidar A adds to the argument, but as it happens, their violent end wasn't the only remarkable thing about this ancient Neanderthal's life.

Not much of Shanidar A was recovered: only the shoulder blade, a mostly complete right hand, two left ribs plus a right-rib fragment, and some teeth.

One of those teeth showed signs of being split in half while Shanidar A was still alive, suggesting Shanidar A suffered some kind of major facial injury that broke their tooth apart, and then lived on with only a fragment of it in their mouth afterward.

"Surviving a blow that splits a tooth in this fashion, then continuing to live and eat for a period of at least a year and maybe more, would have required care and support from other Neanderthals," says Pomeroy.

"There's no doubt that Shanidar A would have had difficulty communicating and been in absolute agony for a long period of time… this was clearly an individual who was cared for during their lifetime."

While we don't know what caused the mouth injury, the researchers suggest it was most likely blunt force trauma, either from something like a fall onto a hard surface, or possibly another incident of interpersonal violence, like the hypothesized spear attack ultimately thought to have claimed Shanidar A's life.


Various views of the mandibular left lateral incisor that had been split longitudinally. 
(Dr Emma Pomeroy)



With regard to the fatal shoulder injury, aside from the 15-millimeter hole in the scapula, the team also found tiny fractures in the bone and displaced bone fragments around the perforation, which all point to a puncture wound, most likely caused by a rounded wooden spear, the researchers think.

"Whether the traumatic lesion on the scapula resulted from something like a hunting accident or from interpersonal violence cannot be known," the researchers explain.

"Either way, the spear would have entered the individual's body on the left-hand side whilst they were facing forward. Such an injury would have penetrated all the way through the chest, including the lungs and potentially major blood vessels, likely leading to a rapid death."

While there's no surviving sign of the spear or weapon in Shanidar Cave – which isn't unusual, given how easily wood can decompose over long time periods – evidence for wooden spears dates back some 400,000 years, so it's entirely plausible that one could have caused the fatal injury.

Whatever happened, it sounds like Shanidar A's people did what they could.

"Shanidar A's shoulder injury appears to have been fatal," the researchers write, "but the apparent placement of the body in a location that subsequently became part of a tight cluster of Neanderthal individuals, who were likely intentionally deposited within living memory of each other, strongly suggests a level of care during and immediately after death."


The birth of modern Man
https://chuckincardinal.blogspot.com/

Old Blood Cells Have Been Transformed Into Brain Stem Cells That Get Younger As They Age

20 Oct. 2026, By I. FARKAS

(Eugene Mymrin/Moment RF/Getty Images)

Aging is the price paid for the ability of experiencing existence, one might philosophize.

Natural cellular aging begins with differentiation. Once a stem cell becomes a specific cell type, it's locked in forever: fat cells can never become muscle cells, no matter how hard one wishes, or pokes and prods at them in front of the mirror.

Or so it goes in nature, but scientists can definitely transform cells, as if biologically compensating for all the failed alchemical attempts of the past.

Now, scientists have transformed old blood cells into young brain stem cells, which continued to grow younger as they grew older.

The researchers, from the University Hospital of Bonn and the University of Bonn, in Germany, described their methods in the journal Aging Cell.

Cellular transformations can be done in two main ways. The first, more circuitous route turns a specific cell back into a pluripotent stem cell, or an embryonic "blank slate," and then into a different cell type.

The second method involves a "direct conversion," which skips the middle stage and directly transforms a cell into a different type.

"Using this method, we have directly converted red blood cell precursors into neural stem cells," summarizes Oliver Brüstle, the director of the Institute of Reconstructive Neurobiology at the University Hospital of Bonn.


Neurons generated through the differentiation of neural stem cells, initially derived from blood. 
(Brüstle Research Group / University of Bonn)



The researchers used donor cells from 15 people across the age spectrum, from newborn to 101 years of age.

They specifically took erythroid progenitor cells (EPCs), which are akin to red blood cells that haven't graduated college yet, and turned them into induced neural stem cells (iNSCs), which are the pre-graduate cells of the brain.

They achieved the direct conversion genetic shortcut via an unlikely agent that usually destroys cells.

The researchers used a virus to deliver two transcription factors, or proteins that attach to DNA to regulate gene activity, to get the cells to change their types.

Then they used two genome-bloodhounding methods – DNA methylation measures and RNA sequencing – to track the resultant anti-aging effects and genetic behavior.

By the 12th day after the viral "infection," the cells started showing their new identity, ditching their blood-like proteins and replacing them with the expression of neural-like proteins instead.

Initially, the epigenetic age (the DNA changes accumulated over time) of the EPCs was highly correlated with the chronological age of their donors.

Obviously, blank slate cells revert to an embryonic state and become rejuvenated, regardless of the age of the person who donated the blood sample.

So the researchers wanted to see if the direct conversion method they used also rejuvenated the converted cells.

Intriguingly, they did, though it took more than twice as long.

But this was just the appetizer, because the neuronal stem cells kept getting younger as they got older (excuse the paradox).

Over the following 50 to 100 days, they kept de-aging, eventually reaching about 5 percent of the donor age, with the majority of epigenetic age-related traits resetting by around 50 days of the conversion process.

In other words, counter-intuitively, they got younger as they got older.

In effect, the converted cells became 60 years younger in 50 days, the researchers note in their official statement, proving that you really can 'melt away the years' as hotel-spa brochures and late-night infomercials promise (if you're a cell, anyway).


The induced neural stem cells, which can differentiate in a few types of brain cells such as neurons, which were derived from the blood of a 101-year-old donor.
 (Brüstle Research Group / University of Bonn)



But were these cells actually younger, or did they just look that way? In other words, anyone can slip on a Thrasher hoodie, but it doesn't imbue them with skate-worthy balance.

"We also know that this epigenetic rejuvenation ensures that the cells actually behave like young cells," Brüstle says.

The researchers analyzed this through numerous measures, including protein expression as well as the rejuvenated cells' recycling abilities.

The cells also displayed less DNA damage and mitochondrial toxicity, showing that the direct conversion cells enjoyed benefits comparable to the blank slate cells.

Intriguingly, they continued growing biologically younger even in conditions that inhibited their proliferation, or ability to divide and multiply, suggesting their rejuvenation isn't dependent on their ability to split.

The researchers do mention some study limitations. These include potential mathematical biases in de-aging models, the absence of naturally aged neural stem cells to use as comparisons, and potential in vitro versus in vivo behavioral differences in cells.

But, promisingly, engineered cells appear to be viable. In previous Franken-mouse-like research from Bonn scientists, cells formed connections with existing neural cells after being transplanted into the brains of mice.

Such GMO mice à la Pinky and the Brain demonstrate future therapeutic value, suggesting the possibility of engineering brain cells for individuals affected by neurodegeneration.

Finally, the protracted nature of the converted cells in this work allows easier study:

"Rejuvenation that extends over such a long period of time is ideal as an experimental model," Brüstle emphasizes.

"Since the epigenetic clocks are slowly reset over several weeks, we can use this model to investigate which factors and active substances accelerate or slow down the rejuvenation process."


The Life of Earth
https://chuckincardinal.blogspot.com/

The Amazon Is Burning Again, and NASA Warns the Worst Is Yet To Come

BY A. VOILAND, NASA EARTH OBSERVATORY, OCT. 20, 2026

NASA Earth Observatory images by Lauren Dauphin, using MODIS data from NASA EOSDIS LANCE and GIBS/Worldview.

A dangerous chain reaction of wildfires is unfolding across the tropics, and the Amazon rainforest is now caught in its path.

A dangerous El Niño-driven wildfire cascade has reached the Amazon, and NASA scientists warn that the worst may still be ahead as hidden fires spread beneath the rainforest canopy.

El Niño is fueling a chain reaction of wildfires across the tropics, with fires first emerging in equatorial Asia before spreading to the central and eastern Amazon rainforest.

While tornadoes and thunderstorms can cause widespread damage in a matter of minutes, El Niño influences weather conditions over the course of months. In 2026, the climate pattern has intensified drought across the Amazon, leaving vast areas of rainforest increasingly vulnerable to fire. Scientists warn that the region is only beginning what could become an unusually long and destructive fire season.

Satellite observations have revealed a dramatic increase in fires and smoke emissions across the central and eastern Amazon since September 2026. The surge is apparent in several monitoring systems, including NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED), and NASA Worldview. The affected area extends from the forests surrounding Manaus and Santarém, two important commercial and transportation hubs, eastward toward the mouth of the Amazon River.

Thick Wildfire Smoke Blankets the Amazon

On October 12, 2026, NASA’s Aqua satellite captured an image showing enormous plumes of smoke rising from fires on both sides of the Amazon River. The image was recorded by MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), one of the satellite’s Earth-observing instruments.

That same day, Manaus, the capital of Brazil’s Amazonas state, was engulfed in dense smoke. City officials reported dangerously polluted air, with concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exceeding 135 micrograms per cubic meter. That level placed air quality in the second-worst category of a regional air quality index.

The smoke brought significant disruptions to the city of more than 2 million residents. Schools shut down, public events were called off, and children’s sports leagues suspended activities as authorities issued warnings about unhealthy air conditions, according to news reports.

Scientists Warn of an El Niño Wildfire Cascade

According to Douglas Morton, an Earth system scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, the fires around Manaus and Santarém are part of a much larger pattern. He describes it as a “cascade” of tropical wildfires driven by changes in rainfall associated with El Niño.

The sequence typically begins near the equator, where dry conditions contribute to peat fires in Indonesia. Increased burning then develops in the central and eastern Amazon. Morton and researchers from the University of California, Irvine; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; and the University of Maryland documented this connection in a 2017 study examining the devastating wildfire season associated with the 2015–2016 El Niño. A similar sequence occurred in 2023.

The wildfire activity unfolding in 2026 appears to be following that same progression. Since August, parts of Indonesia have experienced persistent drought, widespread fires, and heavy smoke. In October, wildfires destroyed hundreds of homes, while thick smoke covered entire islands on most days.

“Now, in the Amazon, we’re seeing the second domino in the cascade fall,” Morton said, referring to the growing number of fires in the Brazilian states of Pará and Amazonas.

More Amazon Wildfires Could Be Coming

Scientists expect the next phase of the wildfire cascade to develop farther north during November and December. Areas at risk include the Brazilian states of Roraima and Amapá, northern Pará, and parts of Venezuela, Guyana, and Suriname.

The danger could then shift southward. Morton predicts that drought and wildfire risk will reach their highest levels in the southern Amazon regions of Brazil and Paraguay around August and September 2027.

“It’s so striking—and frustrating—that this is happening all over again,” said Morton.

One particularly troubling aspect is that many of the forests now burning were also damaged during the El Niño events of 2015 and 2023. Fire can be especially destructive in tropical rainforests because most native plants and animals have not evolved to withstand frequent burning.

Previous wildfires have also weakened parts of the forest, leaving behind damaged and partially charred trees. Morton explained that these changes make the remaining vegetation more vulnerable, potentially allowing some fires to burn with greater intensity than before.

For communities around Manaus and Santarém, relief may not arrive until seasonal rains return in December 2026 or January 2027. However, Morton emphasized that regions farther north and south still have an opportunity to reduce their risk.

“Given the intensity of this El Niño, this really is the year for people to avoid burning at all costs,” Morton said.

Extreme Drought Turns Human-Started Fires Dangerous

Despite the enormous number of wildfires affecting the Amazon, lightning is responsible for very few of them. The Brazilian Amazon is normally so wet that lightning starts less than 1 percent of fires. According to Morton, human activity is responsible for the overwhelming majority of the fires currently burning there.

What makes 2026 especially dangerous is the severity of the drought, which has been intensified by El Niño. Brazil’s National Institute of Meteorology reported that rainfall in Manaus was 95 percent below normal in August and 60 percent below normal in September.

Many of the major fires began as controlled burns used to manage agricultural land, such as clearing unwanted vegetation from pastures or removing crop remnants from fields. But with the forest floor unusually dry, some of those fires escaped their intended boundaries and spread into the rainforest’s understory.

Shane Coffield, an assistant research scientist at the University of Maryland who works at NASA Goddard, said satellite analysis suggests that between 50 and 70 uncontrolled fires are currently burning in the Santarém area alone.

NASA Discovers Hidden Amazon Fires That Satellites Miss

The true extent of the burning may be even greater than official fire monitoring systems suggest.

Through a NASA Earth Action project, Coffield is examining observations from VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) to find fires that fall below the detection thresholds used for official FIRMS fire data.

These additional detections, referred to as “candidate fires,” could help researchers build a more complete picture of wildfire activity. Coffield intends to provide their locations to scientists at MapBiomas, a collaborative network of universities, nongovernmental organizations, and technology companies that tracks fires and changes in land use throughout the Amazon.

“For the area around Santarém, we’ve identified about 40 percent more fires than you’ll see in active fire counts from FIRMS,” said Coffield.

Detecting every fire from space is difficult, particularly in dense tropical forests. Heavy smoke, cloud cover, and thick tree canopies can interfere with satellite sensors by obscuring the infrared heat signals emitted by flames. Smaller, less intense fires moving through vegetation beneath the forest canopy are especially easy to overlook.

This means that some of the days with the thickest smoke can produce surprisingly few satellite fire detections, even when extensive burning is taking place.

“On some of the smokiest days, we have very few detections from MODIS and VIIRS, and we know that isn’t right.”


The Life of Earth
https://chuckincardinal.blogspot.com/

Monday, 19 October 2026

The World May Be Much Closer to a Major Conservation Goal Than Scientists Thought

By U. of Kent, Oct. 18, 2026

A new study suggests that global land conservation may be much closer to an important international target than official figures indicate. 
Credit: Shutterstock

The world may be closer to its 30% land conservation goal, but gaps in grassland and shrubland protection show why acreage alone cannot safeguard wildlife.

Some areas that support wildlife appear in national conservation records but are missing from the global tally. Including them could bring the share of land in some form of conservation to 26.8%, or nearly 27%, well above the officially reported 18.5%.

That difference changes the picture for an international commitment to protect nature. Almost every country has agreed to conserve 30% of land and sea by 2030 to help halt and reverse the biodiversity crisis, yet official figures suggest that progress on land has stalled.

“With four years to go, the terrestrial component of the 30% target seems out of reach. Our analysis suggests that much more of the land is in some type of conservation area than currently recognized,” says lead author Helen O’Neill, a postdoctoral research associate at the Institute of Zoology in London.

Conservation areas beyond the official count

To build the broader estimate, an international team of conservation experts combined global measures of protection with national data on conservation areas. The study, published in Nature, was led by the Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology at the University of Kent in the United Kingdom.

“We need much more effort to officially recognize the existing conservation areas that are currently only recorded in national datasets.” That is the call from the study’s lead investigator, Bob Smith, director of the Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology at the University of Kent in Canterbury. The university is part of the London and Southeast University Group.

Grasslands and shrublands need more protection

Grasslands and shrublands, home to uniquely adapted wildlife, still have limited protection even within this larger conservation network. These gaps mean that expanding the total area alone cannot ensure that the full range of habitats receives protection.

Co-author Heather Bingham, who leads the Protected Planet Initiative at the United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre in Cambridge, stresses that “conserving 30% of lands and seas is not sufficient on its own. The target also calls for these areas to be managed effectively for positive biodiversity outcomes, and to be placed where they will have the greatest impact for biodiversity.”

Meeting those requirements means connecting conservation areas, including diverse ecosystems, and managing sites fairly for local people. Smith adds, “We also need to focus much more on improving the effectiveness of all conservation areas, as increasing the area of land under conservation will do little unless these sites are effectively and fairly managed.”


The Life of Earth
https://chuckincardinal.blogspot.com/

Something Unexpected Is Happening to Antarctica’s Collapsing Ice Cliffs

By M. I. T., Oct. 18, 2026

Antarctica’s towering ice cliffs may be more resilient than scientists once feared. New satellite observations reveal surprising natural mechanisms that could reshape predictions of future sea level rise.
 Credit: Shutterstock

Satellite observations show Antarctic ice cliffs stabilizing after unexpectedly rapid collapse, challenging assumptions about runaway ice loss and its contribution to rising seas.

Antarctica’s ice shelves help hold back the ice sheet behind them, but rising temperatures are causing these supports to melt and break apart at record rates. As sheer ice cliffs are left exposed, scientists have worried that a collapse could reveal a taller cliff farther inland, setting off a chain of failures that eats into the ice sheet and raises seas worldwide.

In a four-year satellite survey of more than 15,000 Antarctic ice cliffs, researchers at MIT and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) found that the tallest cliffs they examined closely did collapse, and the ice sheet in those regions retreated faster than models predicted. “But that retreat was short-lived,” says Caroline Needell, a graduate student in the MIT-WHOI Joint Program.

Needell conducted the study, published in Science, with Catherine Walker, an assistant scientist at WHOI, and Jeremy Bassis, an associate professor at the University of Michigan.
Rapid collapse without runaway retreat

The observations came from NASA’s Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2), which passes over Earth’s polar regions. Its laser altimeter measures the height of ice sheets, glaciers, and sea ice, as well as ocean levels in and around Antarctica. The team analyzed measurements collected every three months from 2019 to 2023 to determine how tall the cliffs were and how they changed over time.

Those measurements offered a much broader test of a proposed process called marine ice cliff instability, or MICI. In this scenario, a cliff exceeding a critical height collapses under its own weight. If that exposes a taller cliff, the failures continue inland. Previous studies had investigated this process by modeling ice’s physical properties, scaling those relationships up to entire cliffs, and combining the predictions with a few observations from Antarctica.


Researchers at MIT and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) analyzed over 15,000 ice cliffs in Antarctica to reveal how they behave over time. 
Credit: Caroline Needell



“Predictive ice-sheet models that have been used so far to represent ice cliff instability just take into account cliff height,” Needell notes. “That’s the only variable that matters. And once the cliff height reaches the critical threshold, usually 100 meters, it should initiate this runaway effect of ice sheet retreat.”

Across the satellite survey, the average ice cliff stood about 30 meters (98 feet) tall, well below that proposed threshold. A few rare cliffs exceeded 100 meters (328 feet), roughly the height of the Statue of Liberty, giving the researchers an opportunity to examine what happened near and above the predicted danger point.

“After we did that global analysis, we thought, ok, let’s zoom in on the tallest cliffs and see how they’re behaving,” Needell says.

The team focused on four cliffs in four regions around the Antarctic ice sheet. These cliffs were roughly 100 meters tall, with the tallest reaching 127 meters (417 feet). Tracking them through the same four years of measurements revealed that their rapid collapse and retreat did not continue unchecked. The ice eventually spread back out toward the ocean.

“It’s this rapid retreat, punctuated by periods of stabilization,” Needell says. “That was puzzling to us. Then, we thought: We need to look at all the things that affect cliff height.”

Rising ground can stabilize ice cliffs

The researchers first examined the shape of the land beneath the ice. Over relatively flat ground, changes in the ice surface’s elevation reflect changes in the thickness of the ice itself. Where the ground rises, however, some of that elevation comes from the land underneath, leaving a thinner layer of ice above it. Such a rise could act as a speed bump for retreat by making the overlying ice less prone to collapse. When the team checked Antarctic topographic measurements, they found that cliffs stabilized around places where the underlying land rose.

Taller cliffs also “thin out” faster, the researchers found. As they collapse, they settle into shorter, more stable cliffs, limiting further collapse.

“Now we know what to look for,” Needell says. “We really need to know the bed topography, and we need to know the ice thinning rate, in order to get ice cliff instability right, because this value really matters in the context of projecting sea level rise.”

Support from broken ice and seawater

Conditions in front of the cliffs offered additional clues. In the broader survey, cliffs that stayed roughly in place had thicker mélange, the slushy mixture of broken icebergs and sea ice that collects against a cliff’s ocean-facing edge.

“We measured mélange height and found taller cliffs have thicker mélange, which could be a built-in stabilizing effect,” Needell explains.

The satellite data also indicated that deeper surrounding water could help keep a cliff standing. The water buoys the ice and pushes back against it, providing support that can make collapse less likely.

“We found that when the cliffs were retreating, they were doing so faster than what has been modeled, which would mean more ice loss and higher contributions of sea level rise,” Needell says. “But because we found that the retreat was short-lived, and all the glaciers eventually stabilized, that would suggest that things won’t be so bad. We don’t see this runaway effect.”


The Life of Earth
https://chuckincardinal.blogspot.com/

Scientists Simulated the Universe – And Discovered the Milky Way May Be One of the Best Places for Life

By L. Barnes, G. Lewis and M. Filipovic, Western Sydney U., Oct. 18, 2026

Galaxy evolution in an EAGLE simulation.
 Credit: The EAGLE project/Durham University

Galaxy simulations suggest the Milky Way offers some of the universe’s best conditions for life, while smaller, more crowded galaxies remain less forgiving.

Earth seems like a troubled place right now, but at least our cosmic surroundings appear peaceful. But this is not universally true, as explosions, collisions, and other dangers lurk in other places and times.

In our new research, published in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, we scoured simulated universes to find the friendliest locations for life.

We discovered something reassuring: the Sun, sitting here in the outskirts of the Milky Way galaxy, is about as good as it gets.

The Goldilocks zones

Regions of the universe that would be friendly towards life are known as habitable or Goldilocks zones – they’re just right.

Whether life is actually there is another question. As astronomers and biologists explore how life could form on exoplanets (planets outside the Solar System), astrophysicists follow the structure and evolution of the universe to identify the nicest places, as well as those where life could be snuffed out in an instant.

So, where should we look for life?


The circumstellar habitable zone near a star is ‘just right’ – not too hot, not too cold.
 Credit: NASA



For example, there is a Goldilocks zone in the immediate neighborhood of stars. Too hot or too cold will not do. This “circumstellar habitable zone” is just right for liquid water instead of steam or ice.

Zooming out, we can look for the nicest places and times to live in our own Milky Way galaxy. A young star that’s too close to the galactic center will suffer in the hustle and bustle of all the nearby stars, whilst stars that are too far away will be in a sterile environment, devoid of the chemicals essential for life.

Just as Earth is in the Sun’s circumstellar habitable zone, the Sun is in the Milky Way’s “galactic habitable zone.”

Let’s zoom out even more. What about other galaxies?

Simulating the universe

We followed synthetic galaxy evolution using the EAGLE (Evolution and Assembly of GaLaxies and their Environments) project – one of the most realistic simulations of the observed universe.

They track the expansion of space, gravity’s pull, and the physics of gas, stars, and black holes, and provide us with a detailed map of what the universe looks like across hundreds of millions of light-years.

With such a map, we asked: where might life be most welcome?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sE731syuNRA

Finding life, avoiding catastrophes

With no observations of alien life, we must make assumptions. The hydrogen and helium produced in the Big Bang are too simple to make organisms, so we focus on generations of stars that have seeded the cosmos with heavier elements essential for life.

Exoplanet observations reveal that Earth-like rocky planets require a certain concentration of those heavier elements. However, too much could produce a hot Jupiter, a gas giant that sweeps through the planetary system, eating rocky planets on the way. This is best avoided.

Our breakthrough involves detailed modeling of those things that are bad news for life. Big stars blow up, sterilizing their local environment. Bigger explosions, such as gamma-ray bursts, can fry a much larger volume. Paleontologists think that the Ordovician mass extinction 450 million years ago might have resulted from a nearby explosion.

There are other dangers to avoid. We wouldn’t want another star to wander through our Solar System and disrupt Earth’s nicely circular orbit. So, steer clear of crowded galactic neighborhoods.

Then there are the black holes. Most of these are small and don’t pose any danger, but in the hearts of galaxies lurk monsters. Weighing more than a million suns, these can roar into life as they swallow matter that gets too close. So, stay away as this can result in intense radiation that can strip the atmosphere off your planet.

A home among the galaxies

While we don’t know if life would form in these nice spots, they are the ones that offer the best conditions.

And the results tell us another thing: the Milky Way is rather nice.

This isn’t just a fondness for our own neighborhood. We could have found that life should exist in earlier galaxies, smaller ones, or farther from galaxy centers.

We find that our universe has created plenty of opportunities for habitation, though it seems to be slowing down as the rate of catastrophes catch up with the creation of new planets. Our Milky Way seems typical in the galaxies that have been efficient in turning the raw materials of the cosmos into life-friendly environments.

Similarly, the Milky Way, and its kindred, have put their energetic and dangerous days behind them and settled into a relaxed retirement. These days, even in a billion years of wandering around our Milky Way, less than one star in a thousand would experience an extreme, life-annihilating extinction event.

The story is different for smaller galaxies, which are far more numerous than the Milky Way, as they are too crowded and too energetic.

So, rest easy. And if you get the chance, buying a property in the Milky Way is probably a secure investment, astronomically speaking.


The Life of Earth
https://chuckincardinal.blogspot.com/