Steven E. Campana, John M. Casselman, Cynthia M. Jones, Gerald Black, Oliver Barker, Marlene Evans, Matthew M. Guzzo, Raouf Kilada, Andrew M. Muir & Robert Perry
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0744-x
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Abstract
Climate warming at high latitudes has long been expected to exceed that predicted for tropical and temperate climes, but recent warming in the Arctic has exceeded even those expectations
1. The geophysical consequences of this warming are reasonably well established
2, but the impacts on freshwater fauna are poorly understood. Here we use a large-scale geospatial analysis of the population dynamics of one of the most abundant north temperate freshwater fish species to forecast increased demographic rates, productivity and colonization range in response to IPCC climate warming scenarios.
Geospatial lake morphometry data were used to characterize 481,784 lakes in the Canadian Arctic capable of supporting lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) populations.
Lake trout productivity in existing habitat is projected to increase by 20% by 2050 due to climate change, but an expanded habitable zone may result in a 29% increase in harvestable biomass.
Although many ecosystems are likely to be negatively impacted by climate warming, the phenotypic plasticity of fish will allow a rapid relaxation of the current environmental constraints on growth in the far north, as well as enhanced colonization of bodies of water in which there are few potential competitors.
Data availability
The geospatial data (Canadian Digital Surface Model and Canadian Digital Elevation Model) are available from http://maps.canada.ca/czs/index-en.html. Air temperature data from 881 weather stations across Canada are available from http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_normals/results_1981_2010_e.html.
Other data that support the findings of this study have been archived at Knowledge Network for Biocomplexity https://doi.org/10.5063/F1ZP44F1 and https://doi.org/10.5063/F1TX3CPV.
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The geospatial data (Canadian Digital Surface Model and Canadian Digital Elevation Model) are available from http://maps.canada.ca/czs/index-en.html. Air temperature data from 881 weather stations across Canada are available from http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_normals/results_1981_2010_e.html.
Other data that support the findings of this study have been archived at Knowledge Network for Biocomplexity https://doi.org/10.5063/F1ZP44F1 and https://doi.org/10.5063/F1TX3CPV.
Recommend this post and follow The Life of Earth
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