https://electroverse.net/cfsv2-forecasts-la-nina-cooling-into-2021/
The latest CFSv2 forecast for region 3.4 of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean reveals that a flip from the recent El Niño setup (warming) to a La Niña one (cooling) has occurred.
The below (above) chart shows Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) for region 3.4. of the equatorial Pacific: that black-dash line has dipped deep into La Niña territory, and the model sees this persisting through the remainder of 2020 and into 2021:
What’s also noteworthy is that CSFv2 readings tend to favor warm events, so it’s worth paying extra-attention when this particular model forecasts anything cold.
La Niña’s are usually associated with cooler global average temperatures, droughts in the southern U.S., and anomalously wet conditions in Australia.
The Climate Prediction Center, a branch of NOAA, recently confirmed in its monthly report that SSTs in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean had indeed cooled, signifying La Niña conditions, and that there was a 75 percent likelihood that La Niña would continue through the winter.
In addition, looking at the UAH Temperature dataset (shown below), if we remove the El Niño (warming) spikes from the record then the global average temperature has remained largely unchanged since the start of the satellite era; any so-called ‘global warming’ has been statistically irrelevant.
And with a La Niña having now taken hold, we can expect the UAH to show an acceleration of the cool-down that began directly after 2015/16’s record super El Niño — readings below the 1981-2010 baseline in early 2021 are a realistic possibility.
The NH’s winter of 2020/21 is shaping up to be a doozy.
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