Antarctica has endured near record-breaking temperatures of late. And now a meridional jet stream flow (induced by low solar activity) is beginning to funnel some of that bone-chilling cold northwards, into South America, Australia, and New Zealand.
Antarctica’s Dome Fuji Station, which is located some 2,400 km from Scott Base, has plunged to -81.7 deg C (-115 deg F) — this is among the locales coldest readings ever recorded.
Professor John Cottle, Antarctica New Zealand Chief Scientific Adviser, said July is typically the coldest month of the year, so the temperature could easily drop another degree or two next month.
“At bases in the center of Antarctica, people are unlikely to be able to venture outside, or if they do, they won’t be able to have any bare skin exposed to avoid frostbite,” said Cottle.
“With these conditions, [frostbite] would occur within a few seconds, much like a ‘burn’ from liquid nitrogen.”
Temperature anomalies across the icy continent have been holding well-below normal this week.
According to the University of Maine, today, June 17, the Antarctic is -3.8C below the 1979-2000 base.
However, last week that departure from the norm was a staggering -8.6C below:
If you still have any concerns re sea level rise then you need to look here, as the picture painted is an un-alarming one — Antarctic Sea Ice Extent is on the increase and is actually riding above the 1979-1990 average (NSIDC).
These past few week of record-challenging low temps have also increased the growth (note the uptick below).
South America has been copping something of polar onslaught of late, as low solar activity continues to impact the jet streams, weakening their flows from a straight ZONAL flow to a wavy MERIDIONAL one, which is shifting some of that brutal Antarctic cold unusually-far north.
Argentina, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay and Chile have witnessed a serious cool-down of late, and the chill is only forecast to intensify as the weekend approaches:
THURSDAY:
GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) for June 18 [tropicaltidbits.com].
These departures from the norm will see low temperature records fall, as they will snow — with the higher elevations of Argentina and Chile, in particular, on course for an early-taste of winter:
GFS Total Snowfall (inches) June 17 – July 3 [tropicaltidbits.com].
Tomorrow, Christchurch and Dunedin should expect a daily max no higher than 8 deg C (46.4 deg F).
NZ meteorologists are keeping a close eye on impending precipitation set to hit the nation, which is expected to fall as heavy snow down to as low 900 m (2,950 ft).
“Given the state of the grounds at the moment, it could be an issue,” said a MetService spokesman regarding the looming rain and snow.
The area most at risk is north of Christchurch which was not as badly affected by last month’s flooding as the south of Christchurch, he added.
Snow will also prove problem, and levels “are starting to lower,” reports Canterbury Weather Updates:
SNOW LEVELS STARTING TO LOWER IN THE SOUTH - FURTHER NORTH TONIGHT.
➡️Yes, it's getting colder! Snow is now falling close to Lake Tekapo. Current scenes from the summit of Mt John, just above the village. Snow flurries may touch down to village level soon - ♨️ Tekapo Springs anyone?!
Substantial accumulations are already impacting New Zealand ski areas, such as Mt Dobson:
GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) June 19 [tropicaltidbits.com].
The world is cooling.
It has been for the past 5 years, as the impact of low solar activity finally penetrates the lower troposphere.
Southern Hemisphere jet streams get little mention, but they are beginning to behave just as erratically as their northern cousins.
Where once the AGW theory was a simple concept to grasp: “temperatures will continuing on an unending march upwards, delivering milder winters and the end of snow,” real-world observations over the past few decades simply haven’t played ball.
In fact, pesky reality has muddied the waters so much that ‘global warming’ now also explains record cold and snowfall, which makes absolutely no sense.
Extreme weather always has and always will occur, but according the IPCC the prevalence and ferocity of such extremes is increasing with human carbon dioxide emissions being the sole culprit.
This explanation should be deemed suspiciously simplistic by anyone capable of logical thought, yet publicly questioning the hypothesis sees you ostracized, your character assassinated, your qualifications dismissed, and even your previous accolades revoked.
Today’s scientific consensus struggles to explain the observed increase in these wavy, meridional jet stream flows (the phenomenon behind swings between extremes), and a consensus actually hasn’t been reached–perhaps because the masses don’t usually dig that deep, and so the concoction of a agreed-upon narrative isn’t required.
There is, however, a weak consensus on the topic: it states that “because the Earth’s polar regions are warming more quickly than the rest of the world, the temperature contrast that drives jet streams has decreased”–making for weaker jets.
“Polar Amplification” is the theory in a nutshell. But at least one insurmountable issue arises when it comes to explaining the Southern Hemisphere’s extremes — science shows us that Antarctica isn’t warming.
Satellite data reveals that sea ice extent around the southern pole has actually GROWN over the past 40+years, and also shows that temperatures across the continent have had no real trend.
In fact, the southernmost tip of South America has experienced rapid cooling over the last several centuries.
And in “the most recent decades,” the climate has deteriorated to the coldest sea surface temperatures of the last 10,000 years (Bertrand et al., 2017).
Additional studies show that not only has the sea ice around Antarctica been advancing in recent decades –in tandem with Southern Ocean cooling (Fan et al., 2014)– but the entire Southern Hemisphere’s sea ice extent has been creeping northwards since the 1970s (Comiso et al., 2017).
And now a new study (Salame et al., 2021) reports that Southern Hemisphere sea ice has been creeping so far northwards since 2000 it now extends well into the 54°S southern Chilean fjords, or up to 100 km further north than the NSIDC’s previous extension limit estimates (55°S).
The daily mean air temperatures in South America’s southernmost fjords fell below 0°C during 74% of the four months from June to September in 2015.
Similar extended cold periods occurred throughout the 2000-2017 temperature record for this region.
These sustained sub-zero °C temperatures are considered the main reason sea ice has been forming during recent decades in all 13 of the Cordillera Darwin fjords analyzed.
Data from the NSIDC supports an overall trend of growth, too.
The agency’s Antarctic Sea Ice chart (shown again below) reveals that this year’s extent has been on turbo charge since early February — and now, as of June 15 (or day 166), extent is still tracking comfortably above the 1979 to 1990 average:
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