The La Niña climate pattern is forecast to make a return this fall and last through the winter of 2021-22, according to an official “alert” issued Thursday, July 8 by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), which suggests further global cooling as we enter the new year.
La Niña –-a natural cycle marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central Pacific Ocean-– is one of the main drivers of global weather — it is usually associated with colder global temperatures, droughts in the southern U.S., and increased precipitation in Australia.
The CPC, part of our data-tampering friends over at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), released its forecast Thursday in which it officially declared an “ENSO alert” with a strong-potential for La Niña conditions emerging between September-November this year.
The below chart shows SSTs for region 3.4 of the equatorial Pacific.
Note that the majority of the models are running deep into La Niña territory, with these conditions expected to persist throughout the remainder of 2021, and into 2022:
This natural climate cycle is officially known as the El Niño – Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short.
ENSO-neutral conditions, sometimes referred to as “La Nada,” which occur when seawater temperatures are about average, are forecast to persist throughout the summer of 2021, until La Niña takes over later this year.
We just went through a La Niña last winter.
It, along with the historically low solar activity we’ve been experiencing, resulted in a sharp global cooldown.
And although conditions have returned to ENSO-neutral, or La Nada, in recent months, Earth’s terrestrial temperatures have continued to cool — in June, 2021 (the most recent data-point) global average temperatures fell back below the 30-year average:
Entering a La Niña event when global temperatures are already around baseline is significant.
If the climate pattern has the expected affect then we should brace for global temps to continue their overall downward trend –which began in 2016 (see link below)– to levels well below the norm.
We could conceivably be looking at UAH readings some 0.4C below the 30-year average by the spring of 2022.
AGW proponents will have a hard time explaining their way out of that one.
According to the prediction center, a typical La Niña winter in the United States brings intense cold and snow to the northwest, and unusually dry and chilly conditions to the majority of the southern tier.
Australia gets cooler and wetter, overall.
While Europe usually sees colder winters, and extreme snowfall events.
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