Wednesday 13 April 2022

RECORD LATE-SEASON FREEZE INTENSIFIES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA, PUSHING NAT-GAS PRICES TO 13-YEAR HIGHS; + EUROPE’S CHILLY MARCH

APRIL 13, 2022 CAP ALLON


RECORD LATE-SEASON FREEZE INTENSIFIES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA…

As the jet stream plunges southwards, out-of-season cold is being funneled deep into the CONUS: Historic April blizzards are raging over the Dakotas, while potentially record-breaking chills are enveloping 85% of the North American continent.

Blizzard Warnings currently extend across parts of central and eastern North Dakota and northwestern South Dakota into eastern Montana; with Winter Storm Warnings in effect elsewhere, namely across the Rockies and into the Pacific Northwest.

Towns and cities across the continent are expected to see record-cold temperatures this week — hundreds of benchmarks are forecast to fall due to sheer size and intensity of descending polar air mass:

GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) April 14 [tropicaltidbits.com].

Areas of the Pacific Northwest should brace for temperatures 24C below the norm for the time of year. Fox Weather was expecting a myriad of ‘record cold highs’ to tumble Tuesday–including those visualized below:


As the cold shifts eastwards throughout the week, hundreds of additional low temperature benchmarks are forecast to fall–from Alberta to Alabama.

The snow will also prove record-breaking — below are the projected totals for the next 7-days:

GFS Total Snowfall (inches) to April 20 [tropicaltidbits.com].

In fact, historic snowfall records have already been falling, including Portland registering its first measurable April snow in books dating back to 1940:

…PUSHING NAT-GAS PRICES TO 13-YEAR HIGHS

The U.S. consumer price index (CPI), already at a 4-decade high, increased to 8.5% in March with surging food, energy and shelter costs accounting for much of the gain.

But on the bright side, official estimates see March as being the peak — it’s apparently back down from here:


Not exactly helping April’s inflation numbers, however, is the late-season cold currently engulfing the majority of the North America. U.S. natural gas futures climbed to a 13-year high on Tuesday on concerns that the freezing weather will boost heating demand.

U.S. futures have already soared 78% so far this year, and much higher increases in Europe are keeping demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) near record highs as countries try to wean themselves off Russian gas–at least that’s the narrative.

However, while U.S. gas prices have soared 44% over the past month, European gas dropped about 23%. This is because Russia, despite the war and the rhetoric, is continuing to supply the continent with copious amounts of gas via pipeline and LNG vessels.

U.S. gas stockpiles are sitting 17% below the five-year average for the time of year. This combined with worries that April’s freeze will keep heating demand high enough to prevent utilities from injecting gas into storage explains why prices are on the rise.

Inflation figures are supposed to begin falling this month.

Personally though, I’m struggling to see how… grow your own.

EUROPE’S CHILLY MARCH

April has started exceptionally chilly across much of Europe, but March was also a cold one.

March 2022 in Italy came out cold and dry. The nation’s average temperature anomaly for the month was -1.17C below the multidecadal norm. It was coldest in the Adriatic regions, as visualized below:

[ISAC-CNR]

March in Portugal had an average temperature of 11.88C — some -0.4C below the norm.

While in neighboring Spain, an anomaly of -0.6C below the multidecadal average was registered last month, with the Canary Islands –a Spanish archipelago– averaging -1.3C below the norm.

[Aemet]

Living is getting increasingly tough, but tuning out the TV and radio helps, as does getting back to nature and growing your own:


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