SOLAR CYCLE 25 PROGRESSING SIMILARLY TO THE HISTORICALLY WEAK 24
We’re a year and a half into SC25 now, and although the cycle is slightly outperforming both its forerunner (SC24) as well the official projection made by the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel in 2019, things are still progressing within the expected ranges — the cycle is on course to be another historically weak one, markedly weaker than SC21, SC22 and SC23:
Solar Cycle 25 progression (green line) compared to 24, 23, 22 & 21 [solen.info]
The upshot?
Global temperatures will likely continue their well-established correlation with solar activity — and decrease.
Solar cycle 25, at least so far, is offering minimal relief from the multidecadal drop-off in solar output that we’re experiencing — what we’re in is an extended period of low solar activity not seen since the Dalton Minimum (1795-1835).
And although anything can happen from here –there are even credible forecasts still calling for a record strong SC25– things appear to be progressing in line with those original Solar Cycle Prediction Panel projections from 2019. Back then, panel co-chair Lisa Upton, Ph.D., solar physicist with Space Systems Research Corp, announced: “We expect Solar Cycle 25 will be very similar to Cycle 24 … another weak cycle, preceded by a long, deep minimum.”
The following cycle (SC26) is expected, by many, to be even weaker than SC24 and SC25, perhaps even nonexistent — a reality that could spell disastrous news for humanity. Historical documentation reveals human civilizations expand and flourish during prolonged spells of warmth (aka Grand Solar Maximums–such as the Modern Maximum: ≈1920 to ≈2000); and, conversely, contract and collapse during extended cool downs (i.e. Little Ice Ages). The periods of Minoan, Roman and Medieval Warming are all evidence of this. Overlaying the peak of these past civilizations atop the GISP2 Ice Core data clearly illustrates the pattern:
The most successful human civilizations are built on the presumed constant and predictable climate that comes with Grand Solar Maximums; however, as the decades of reliable climate pass, a societies’ reliance on its ever-brittle infrastructure grows — and this is the problem: When that presumed constant is broken it’s broken fast, and the system can’t adapt quickly enough to cope with the change (aka the descending cold).
Below is a chart comparing Solar Cycle 25 to the very weak cycles from the turn of the 1900s (the Centennial Minimum):
Solar Cycle 24 & 25 compared to 16, 14, 13 & 12 [solen.info]
Clear to see is just how lackluster these past two cycles are; in fact, they’re the weakest in more than two centuries:
The official forecast by the NOAA/NASA Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel (made in 2019, and visualized by the red line above) called for a weak cycle 25, peaking in mid-2025. And while things are currently tracking slightly ahead of schedule, NOAA don’t believe that the cycle will peak much higher than SC24; instead, they simply see the peak arriving earlier, in late-2024.
If this plays out it would mean an earlier start to Solar Cycle 26–a key cycle for reasons detailed above.
As always though, time will tell.
AMERICA’S SPRING FREEZE
A buckling jet stream is about to drop frigid Arctic air into much of North America this week.
Such conditions will counter the anomalous warmth enjoyed over the past few days in a setup serving as yet another example of the swing between extremes prevalent during times of historically low solar activity.
Cities such as Reno and Nevada are forecast highs in the 40s Tuesday after enjoying near 80F warmth late last week; but from Alaska to Alabama, the next 14 days will see potentially record-breaking low temperatures sweep the majority of the continent.
According to the latest GFS run, departures from the norm could be as great as -24C below, particularly in central regions:
GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) April 12 – April 24 [tropicaltidbits.com].
Accompanying the unseasonable cold will be heavy late-season snow, particularly in Ontario, the Dakotas and Nebraska:
SHIVELUCH ERUPTS TO 32,000 FEET
Explosive activity is continuing at Russia’s highly active volcano Shiveluch.
The VAAC Anchorage warned yesterday, April 10, of a volcanic ash plume rising to an estimated 32,000 ft (9.8 km).
SHIVELUCH STATS
Stratovolcano: 3283 m / 10,771 ft
Kamchatka, Russia: 56.65°N / 161.36°E
Current status: ERUPTING (4 out of 5)
Shiveluch volcano is highly explosive. It has a recent eruptive history littered with VEI 4s and 5s, and is known for large pyroclastic flows. Shiveluch is one of Kamchatka’s largest and most active volcanoes.
Eruption list: 1739(?), 1800(?), 1854 (Plinian eruption), 1879-83, 1897-98, 1905, 1928-29, 1930, 1944-50, 1964 (sub-Plinian, large dome collapse and debris flow), 1980-81, 1984, 1985, 1986-88, 1988, 1989 1990-94, 1997, 1998, 1999, 1999-ongoing
For more see VolcanoDiscovery.com.
Seismic and Volcanic activity has been correlated to changes in our sun. The recent global uptick in earthquakes and volcanic eruptions is likely attributed to the drop-off in solar activity, coronal holes, a waning magnetosphere, and the influx of Cosmic Rays penetrating silica-rich magma.
Recommend this post and follow
The Life of Earth
No comments:
Post a Comment