ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON’S WEAKEST START IN 30 YEARS
Back in May, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center predicted an “above-average hurricane activity year”. The agency’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to Nov 30, saw a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
NOAA’s 2022 Hurricane Outlook
For the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane season, NOAA expected as many as 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including as many as 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provided these ranges with a 70% confidence.
Such mainstream predictions, however, are always predicated on a failing global warming hypotheses, a narrative that calls for linearly rising global temperatures, less snowfall, and increased storms.
Also, and to appease their AGW Party backers, the likes of NOAA completely sidestep the biggest forcing of them all –solar activity– and as a result, reality routinely proves their forecasts and outlooks spectacularly wrong, whether that be for temperature, snowfall, or, as in this case, hurricanes.
It’s now late-August of 2022 and the year’s Atlantic Hurricane Season has been the slowest ‘non-starter’ in 30 years–even longer by other metrics (I’ll get into that below). Not only is NOAA being proven wrong, they are, once again, being proven spectacularly wrong.
Powerful hurricanes last for days and enable massive transfer of energy (charge rebalancing) between the ionosphere and the Earth’s surface. So the main energetic source for major hurricanes is the electric potential difference between the Earth and its ionosphere. Reduced solar activity means a less (positively) charged ionosphere which means reduced electric potential difference between the ionosphere and the Earth which means less frequent category 5 hurricanes.
NOAA don’t appear to understand this–at least they don’t express this understanding publicly–hence their 10% forecast for a below average hurricane season during a time of historically low solar activity (the combined lowest for 200 years).
A key metric meteorologists use to gauge a season’s activity has flatlined. As of Aug 20, the 2022 hurricane season’s ‘ACE Index’ is pacing the lowest of any year since 1992, according to Kim Wood, associate professor at Mississippi State University:
Keep in mind, though, a slow-starting hurricane season does not necessarily mean the rest of the season will be a dud.
Among the five other seasons in the satellite era (since 1966) that were considered slow-starters (as shown in Dr Wood’s tweet) one was 1992, yet by Aug 22, 1992, ‘Andrew’ became a hurricane and slammed into South Florida; prior to that, after 1988’s slow start, ‘Gilbert’ developed into the most intense Atlantic Basin hurricane at the time before slamming Cancún and NE Mexico; while hurricanes ‘Diana,’ ‘Anita’ and ‘Beulah’ each developed shortly after early-season slumbers in 1984, 1977 and 1967, respectively.
Time will tell, as it tends to do — but so far, as of late-Aug, NOAA have been proven SPECTACULARLY wrong.
ACE index ‘flatline’: 2022 (green line) vs. other seasons with less than 50% of average ACE through Aug. 20 (red lines).
ODD MAGNETISM BENEATH THE SUN
Activity has been quiet on the sun in recent days, particularly given the fact that we’re approaching solar maximum (within the 11-year cycle) which is expected to peak in 2024.
And barring the odd minor flaring, space weather is forecast to remain calm for the time being, at least for the next week-or-so; no CMEs are coming, and the next solar wind stream isn’t expected to reach Earth until August 29.
Despite the quiet, a new sunspot (provisionally numbered AR3088) is emerging in the sun’s southern hemisphere; however, something is off about it — observers have noted that its magnetic field is not normal:
The sunspot, as shown in the above Solar Dynamics Observatory map of magnetic fields, should have its magnetic poles arranged +/-, that is, positive (+) on the left and negative (-) on the right. Instead, however, and going against Hale’s Law, they are rotated 90 degrees with positive (+) on top and negative (-) is on the bottom.
This is a rare ‘perpendicular sunspot,’ with magnetic poles orthogonal to the sun’s equator.
What’s going on?
“Something unusual may be happening to the sun’s magnetic dynamo beneath the surface where this sunspot is growing,” postulates Dr Tony Philips of spaceweather.com. “We’ll keep an eye on AR3088 to see what happens next,” he concludes.
Stay tuned for updates.
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