Saturday, 6 December 2025

A Forgotten Eruption Could Rewrite the Black Death Origin Story

BY SPRINGER NATURE, DEC. 4, 2025

A tropical volcanic eruption may have triggered climate chaos and famine that drove medieval Italian states to import grain carrying plague-infected fleas. This new evidence links environmental upheaval to the deadly chain of events that launched the Black Death.
 Credit: SciTechDaily.com

New research suggests that volcanic eruptions may have triggered climate cooling and famine that pushed Italian city-states to import grain from the Black Sea—unknowingly bringing plague-infected fleas with it.

Volcanic Cooling and the Conditions for a Medieval Pandemic

Research published today (December 4) in Communications Earth & Environment proposes that volcanic activity may have intensified the movement of the Black Death across medieval Europe. According to the authors, a period of cooling that followed this activity created widespread food shortages. Italian city-states responded by bringing in grain from the Black Sea region, and those shipments may have carried the plague-causing bacterium, Yersinia pestis.

The Black Death moved through Europe between 1347 and 1353 CE and killed up to 60% of people in some areas. Although its deadly impact is well documented, the reasons behind the specific timing of its arrival and rapid expansion remain unclear.

Evidence From Climate Records and Historical Accounts

To investigate this question, Martin Bauch and Ulf Büntgen examined earlier studies of tree ring data from eight European regions, measurements of volcanic sulphur collected from Antarctic and Greenland ice cores, and historical writings from the same period. Together, these sources point to a major tropical volcanic event around 1345 CE that increased sulphur and ash in the atmosphere. The resulting wet and cold weather affected large areas of southern Europe and the Mediterranean.

Written records describe extensive crop failures and famine during this period in Spain, southern France, northern and central Italy, Egypt, and the Levant. These hardships pushed Italian maritime powers, including Venice and Genoa, to negotiate a temporary ceasefire with the Mongols of the Golden Horde so they could secure grain from the Black Sea region around 1347 CE.

Grain Shipments and the Spread of Plague

Venetian sources claim that these grain imports prevented large-scale starvation. However, the timing of arriving grain ships and the appearance of plague in the cities that received them suggest another consequence. Fleas carrying Yersinia pestis may have been transported along with the grain. These fleas could then have traveled onward to places such as Padua as the shipments were redistributed, contributing to the wider spread of the Black Death through Europe.

A New Explanation for the Black Death’s Emergence

The authors conclude that their findings offer a potential explanation for how the Black Death began and moved through Europe, linking climatic disruption, famine, and the movement of grain during a critical moment in medieval history.


The Life of Earth
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