NASA Earth Observatory images by Lauren Dauphin, using MODIS data from NASA EOSDIS LANCE and GIBS/Worldview.
A dangerous chain reaction of wildfires is unfolding across the tropics, and the Amazon rainforest is now caught in its path.
A dangerous El Niño-driven wildfire cascade has reached the Amazon, and NASA scientists warn that the worst may still be ahead as hidden fires spread beneath the rainforest canopy.
El Niño is fueling a chain reaction of wildfires across the tropics, with fires first emerging in equatorial Asia before spreading to the central and eastern Amazon rainforest.
While tornadoes and thunderstorms can cause widespread damage in a matter of minutes, El Niño influences weather conditions over the course of months. In 2026, the climate pattern has intensified drought across the Amazon, leaving vast areas of rainforest increasingly vulnerable to fire. Scientists warn that the region is only beginning what could become an unusually long and destructive fire season.
Satellite observations have revealed a dramatic increase in fires and smoke emissions across the central and eastern Amazon since September 2026. The surge is apparent in several monitoring systems, including NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED), and NASA Worldview. The affected area extends from the forests surrounding Manaus and Santarém, two important commercial and transportation hubs, eastward toward the mouth of the Amazon River.
Thick Wildfire Smoke Blankets the Amazon
On October 12, 2026, NASA’s Aqua satellite captured an image showing enormous plumes of smoke rising from fires on both sides of the Amazon River. The image was recorded by MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), one of the satellite’s Earth-observing instruments.
That same day, Manaus, the capital of Brazil’s Amazonas state, was engulfed in dense smoke. City officials reported dangerously polluted air, with concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exceeding 135 micrograms per cubic meter. That level placed air quality in the second-worst category of a regional air quality index.
The smoke brought significant disruptions to the city of more than 2 million residents. Schools shut down, public events were called off, and children’s sports leagues suspended activities as authorities issued warnings about unhealthy air conditions, according to news reports.
Scientists Warn of an El Niño Wildfire Cascade
According to Douglas Morton, an Earth system scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, the fires around Manaus and Santarém are part of a much larger pattern. He describes it as a “cascade” of tropical wildfires driven by changes in rainfall associated with El Niño.
The sequence typically begins near the equator, where dry conditions contribute to peat fires in Indonesia. Increased burning then develops in the central and eastern Amazon. Morton and researchers from the University of California, Irvine; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; and the University of Maryland documented this connection in a 2017 study examining the devastating wildfire season associated with the 2015–2016 El Niño. A similar sequence occurred in 2023.
The wildfire activity unfolding in 2026 appears to be following that same progression. Since August, parts of Indonesia have experienced persistent drought, widespread fires, and heavy smoke. In October, wildfires destroyed hundreds of homes, while thick smoke covered entire islands on most days.
“Now, in the Amazon, we’re seeing the second domino in the cascade fall,” Morton said, referring to the growing number of fires in the Brazilian states of Pará and Amazonas.
More Amazon Wildfires Could Be Coming
Scientists expect the next phase of the wildfire cascade to develop farther north during November and December. Areas at risk include the Brazilian states of Roraima and Amapá, northern Pará, and parts of Venezuela, Guyana, and Suriname.
The danger could then shift southward. Morton predicts that drought and wildfire risk will reach their highest levels in the southern Amazon regions of Brazil and Paraguay around August and September 2027.
“It’s so striking—and frustrating—that this is happening all over again,” said Morton.
One particularly troubling aspect is that many of the forests now burning were also damaged during the El Niño events of 2015 and 2023. Fire can be especially destructive in tropical rainforests because most native plants and animals have not evolved to withstand frequent burning.
Previous wildfires have also weakened parts of the forest, leaving behind damaged and partially charred trees. Morton explained that these changes make the remaining vegetation more vulnerable, potentially allowing some fires to burn with greater intensity than before.
For communities around Manaus and Santarém, relief may not arrive until seasonal rains return in December 2026 or January 2027. However, Morton emphasized that regions farther north and south still have an opportunity to reduce their risk.
“Given the intensity of this El Niño, this really is the year for people to avoid burning at all costs,” Morton said.
Extreme Drought Turns Human-Started Fires Dangerous
Despite the enormous number of wildfires affecting the Amazon, lightning is responsible for very few of them. The Brazilian Amazon is normally so wet that lightning starts less than 1 percent of fires. According to Morton, human activity is responsible for the overwhelming majority of the fires currently burning there.
What makes 2026 especially dangerous is the severity of the drought, which has been intensified by El Niño. Brazil’s National Institute of Meteorology reported that rainfall in Manaus was 95 percent below normal in August and 60 percent below normal in September.
Many of the major fires began as controlled burns used to manage agricultural land, such as clearing unwanted vegetation from pastures or removing crop remnants from fields. But with the forest floor unusually dry, some of those fires escaped their intended boundaries and spread into the rainforest’s understory.
Shane Coffield, an assistant research scientist at the University of Maryland who works at NASA Goddard, said satellite analysis suggests that between 50 and 70 uncontrolled fires are currently burning in the Santarém area alone.
NASA Discovers Hidden Amazon Fires That Satellites Miss
The true extent of the burning may be even greater than official fire monitoring systems suggest.
Through a NASA Earth Action project, Coffield is examining observations from VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) to find fires that fall below the detection thresholds used for official FIRMS fire data.
These additional detections, referred to as “candidate fires,” could help researchers build a more complete picture of wildfire activity. Coffield intends to provide their locations to scientists at MapBiomas, a collaborative network of universities, nongovernmental organizations, and technology companies that tracks fires and changes in land use throughout the Amazon.
“For the area around Santarém, we’ve identified about 40 percent more fires than you’ll see in active fire counts from FIRMS,” said Coffield.
Detecting every fire from space is difficult, particularly in dense tropical forests. Heavy smoke, cloud cover, and thick tree canopies can interfere with satellite sensors by obscuring the infrared heat signals emitted by flames. Smaller, less intense fires moving through vegetation beneath the forest canopy are especially easy to overlook.
This means that some of the days with the thickest smoke can produce surprisingly few satellite fire detections, even when extensive burning is taking place.
“On some of the smokiest days, we have very few detections from MODIS and VIIRS, and we know that isn’t right.”
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