As Europe pushes toward cleaner energy solutions, an unexpected challenge is dimming solar power’s potential: Saharan dust. New research reveals how these airborne particles not only reduce solar panel output but also complicate energy forecasting across the continent.
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Dust from the Sahara is threatening Europe’s solar energy plans by blocking sunlight and confusing prediction models.
As Europe increasingly turns to solar power to achieve its climate goals and strengthen energy security, a rising challenge has emerged in the form of Saharan dust. According to new findings shared at the European Geosciences Union General Assembly (EGU25), mineral dust transported by winds from North Africa is not only diminishing photovoltaic (PV) power output across the continent, but also making solar energy production more difficult to forecast.
In a presentation titled The Shadow of the Wind: photovoltaic power generation under Europe’s Dusty Skies, Dr. György Varga and a team of researchers from Hungarian and European institutions outlined how airborne dust interferes with PV system performance and complicates current prediction tools. Their conclusions draw on observational data from over 46 Saharan dust events recorded between 2019 and 2023, covering both Central Europe (Hungary) and Southern Europe (Portugal, Spain, France, Italy, and Greece).
Dust lowers sunlight and confuses models
Each year, the Sahara emits billions of tons of fine dust into the atmosphere, with tens of millions of tons eventually drifting over Europe. These airborne particles interfere with sunlight by scattering and absorbing it, decreasing the amount of solar radiation that reaches the ground and, in some cases, encouraging cloud development — all factors that diminish photovoltaic (PV) efficiency.
The research team discovered that standard forecasting systems, which rely on fixed aerosol climatologies, often fail to accurately predict conditions during these dust events. To address this, they propose incorporating near-real-time data on dust levels and accounting for interactions between aerosols and clouds within forecasting models. This approach could improve the reliability of solar energy planning and help manage the fluctuations caused by dust in the atmosphere.
“There’s a growing need for dynamic forecasting methods that account for both meteorological and mineralogical factors,” says Varga.
“Without them, the risk of underperformance and grid instability will only grow as solar becomes a larger part of our energy mix.”
Each year, the Sahara emits billions of tons of fine dust into the atmosphere, with tens of millions of tons eventually drifting over Europe. These airborne particles interfere with sunlight by scattering and absorbing it, decreasing the amount of solar radiation that reaches the ground and, in some cases, encouraging cloud development — all factors that diminish photovoltaic (PV) efficiency.
The research team discovered that standard forecasting systems, which rely on fixed aerosol climatologies, often fail to accurately predict conditions during these dust events. To address this, they propose incorporating near-real-time data on dust levels and accounting for interactions between aerosols and clouds within forecasting models. This approach could improve the reliability of solar energy planning and help manage the fluctuations caused by dust in the atmosphere.
“There’s a growing need for dynamic forecasting methods that account for both meteorological and mineralogical factors,” says Varga.
“Without them, the risk of underperformance and grid instability will only grow as solar becomes a larger part of our energy mix.”
Dust also damages solar infrastructure
Beyond atmospheric effects, the team also points out the long-term impacts of dust on the physical infrastructure of solar panels, including contamination and erosion, factors that can further reduce efficiency and increase maintenance costs. This research contributes to ongoing efforts in Hungary and the EU to improve climate resilience and renewable energy management.
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