Posted on December 22, 2020
https://polarbearscience.com/2020/12/
It’s time to look at sea ice habitat at 15 December (Julian Day 350), now that virtually all bears except pregnant females throughout the Arctic are either out on the sea ice attempting to hunt for seals or hunkered down against the darkness.
As is usual at this time of year, the Canadian Archipelago, the Beaufort, East Siberian and Laptev Seas are well covered in ice (see regions on map below). As for the rest, despite what one polar bear specialist
has implied there is no evidence that a slower-than-usual fall freeze-up in the other peripheral seas of the Arctic negatively affects polar bear health or survival.
In fact, because of the attractiveness of the ice edge for seals in the fall, as I discussed
last month, it’s possible that the longer the ice edge persists in fall, the more successful polar bears will be in hunting seals – except those above the Arctic Circle
where lack of daylight from early November may cause polar bears to hunker down and rest rather than try to hunt through the darkness. But we’ll never know for sure, because bears have never been studied at this time of year –
experts simply make assumptions about what happens (e.g. Stirling and Oritsland 1995).
Sea ice thickness also varies year to year throughout the season but does not matter much to polar bears, who hunt most successfully in first year ice less than 2m in thickness, which comprises all of the regions currently purple in the ice thickness chart below.
HUDSON BAYThis year at mid-December, there was more ice than usual in central and southern Hudson Bay (below) and somewhat less than usual in the eastern portion.
However, the ice is forming so fast now that by 18 December there was hardly any open water remaing over Hudson Bay and the ice to the north was solidifying (below). Recall that a similar freeze-up pattern left a pod of a dozen or so killer whales
stranded in mid-January 2013 and killed four others
in 2016. Such ice-entrapment suggests that despite a ‘warming’ Arctic, freeze-up patterns would have to change very dramatically for Hudson Bay to be an attractive place for killer whales. A
recent DFO report concluded:
Killer whale ice entrapments are almost always fatal and can wipe out entire family groups, with long-lasting demographic impacts. Ice entrapments could therefore slow Arctic killer whale range expansions, particularly in areas where killer whales that are unfamiliar with sea-ice patterns fail to exit prior to ice formation in winter.
Compare Hudson Bay weekly stage of development charts (below) for this year back to 2014, from the Canadian Ice Service
archives. You’ll see that this year appears to have more extensive
1st year ice (light green, ca. 30-70 cm) than any other year (although last year had almost as much) and that 2016 was notable as being a very late freeze-up year:
Western Hudson Bay polar bears with collars or tags deployed by Andrew Derocher and his University of Alberta crew (below) are spread out over the ice of the bay (two on land are denning females), a number are on the thickest ice in the north but others are on thinner ice to the south and east:
BAFFIN BAY, FOXE BASIN, AND DAVIS STRAITIce covereage in the Canadian Eastern Arctic at mid-December is about average this year, according to CIS charts – only a bit of red and pink indicating ‘below normal’ in the east (off of Greenland)
:
Pack ice has moved down from the north through Baffin Bay into Davis Strait (below) and will soon be off the coast of Labrador, which has somewhat less ice than usual this year at mid-December:
The ice off Labrador at this time is shorefast ice developing and thickening in place (below). As far as we know, few polar bears summer on the northern Labrador coast, so this late ice development is unlikely to affect local bears. However, pack ice will move down during January and February until it engulfs the area north of Newfoundland, bringing
some polar bears with it.
GREENLAND AND BARENTS SEA
Freeze-up in the Greenland Sea is progressing a bit faster than usual for the last five years (below), but not remarkably so:
Ice cover in the Barents Sea (below) has been slow so far but has been progressing faster over the last few weeks. There is now ice off the east coast of Novaya Zemlya, shorefast ice that should allow any bears summering there to hunt for seals
just as Western Hudson Bay bears do during early freeze-up stages. Within the next few weeks, the Arctic pack ice will move south into the Kara Sea, allowing bears to move more freely.
Ice off Svalbard has been much below normal (below), as it has been for years now, which is why virtually all Barents Sea pregnant females currently make maternity dens in Franz Josef Land or on the sea ice to the north. These alternative areas for safely giving birth is the primary reason that the much reduced sea ice around Svalbard in recent years has
not impacted Barents Sea polar bear health or survival.
KARA SEAIce cover in the
Kara Sea at 15 December (below) is lower compared to the last five years but it’s unclear how much effect this will have on local polar bears.
See everse article in my comment below. Kara Sea ice growth last weeks of 2020 CC
Animals that have opted to spend the ice-free season on Novaya Zemlya or on the Russian mainland will have had a long wait for ice, but those that spent the summer on the Severnya Zemlya archipelago to the east had access to sea ice
before the end of November. There has been no word from Belushaya Guba on whether the
polar bear problems they had because of poorly maintained garbage dumps in December 2018 that went on until February 2019 have recurred this year.
Despite what Andrew Derocher claims (below), there is no evidence that slightly less sea ice in the fall is detrimental to polar bear health or survival in the Kara Sea or elsewhere. It is possible that it might but no one has studied it, so to suggest that low sea ice cover is ‘trouble’ for polar bears at this time of year is very misleading.
CHUKCHI/BERING SEASea ice cover over the Chukchi Sea is a bit lower than it has been over the last few years, about as low as it was in 2017 (below).
Chukchi Sea polar bears at 14 December (below) had abundant sea ice habitat.
In 2016, when Chukchi polar bears were
counted for the first time, there was a similar amount of ice at this time of year (below):
REFERENCES
Stirling, I. and Γritsland, N. A. 1995. Relationships between estimates of ringed seal (Phoca hispida) and polar bear (Ursus maritimus) populations in the Canadian Arctic. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 52: 2594 – 2612.
http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/f95-849#.VNep0y5v_gUPosted in
Sea ice habitatTagged
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sea ice,
strandingsIMAGEes,
tsunamiPolar bears again attracted to Russian town by dead walrus Attenborough blames on no sea icePosted on
December 20, 2020 | Comments Offon Polar bears again attracted to Russian town by dead walrus Attenborough blames on no sea ice
In the news again: Cape Schmidt (on the Chukchi Sea) made famous by Sir David Attenborough’s
false claim that walrus fell to their deaths because of lack of sea ice due to climate change when a clever
polar bear hunting strategy was actually to blame.
Ryrkaypiy overrun by polar bears Dec 2019 WWF photo
Last year in December (above), some bears were feeding at Ryrkaypiy’s garbage dump and
wandering around town after being displaced from feeding on walrus carcasses by bigger, stronger bears on the nearby point.
This year, the town has managed to keep the bears out of town, so while the residents are having no real problems, more than 30 bears have been spotted near town, almost certainly feeding on natural-death carcasses of walrus along the shore (see photo below from 2017 where Ryrkaypiy can be seen in the background).
The conundrum of Hudson Bay bears that left shore late in 1983 with video from CBC archivesPosted on
December 17, 2020 | Comments Offon The conundrum of Hudson Bay bears that left shore late in 1983 with video from CBC archives
In 1983, it was claimed that freeze-up of Hudson Bay was so late that polar bears didn’t leave the shore until the 4th of December – several weeks later than had been usual at that time. However, the fact that sea ice charts show significant ice offshore weeks before that time suggests something else was probably going on.
About three weeks ago, CBC News republished an article (with video) from their 1983 archives for 1 December, about the plight of the people of Churchill who had already suffered one death and one serious mauling by polar bears. That was thirty-seven years ago, long before lack of sea ice was blamed for everything bad that happened to Western Hudson Bay polar bears. In fact, rather than a really late freeze-up, it appears the problem had more to do with the fact the bears had had an especially tough spring that year and arrived onshore in only ‘OK’ condition – and as a consequence, the town dump became such a strong attractant for many bears that they were reluctant to leave when the sea ice formed offshore.
Continue readingRaise your hand if you knew Newfoundland was devastated by a major tsunami in 1929Posted on
December 10, 2020 |Raise your hand if you knew Newfoundland was devastated by a major tsunami in 1929
Only a few months ago, I discovered that the Burin Peninsula on the south shore of
Newfoundland in eastern Canada was devastated by a major tsunami in 1929, which inspired my new short novel,
UPHEAVAL. My story is about an ice tsunami that devastates Cape Breton Island in 2026 (an ocean wave triggered by an earthquake or underwater landslide becomes an ice tsunami when it travels under sea ice before it comes ashore). Here are the details on that little-known 1929 tsunami event – which even a colleague who is a tsunami advisor for his area of Alaska and family members who had lived in Nova Scotia had never heard of before.
Continue readingSpeculation on ice-trapped whales: science-based fiction vs. dishonest sciencePosted on
December 6, 2020 | Speculation on ice-trapped whales: science-based fiction vs. dishonest science
Ice entrapment of whales is known to happen across the Arctic, including Davis Strait and the Gulf of St. Lawrence. How common such phenomena were in the past or might be in the future are subjects of conjecture. However, while speculation is the bread-and-butter of science-based fiction, it is the bane of peer-reviewed science.
I’ve written two novels informed by science set a bit in the future (2025-2026) in Eastern Canada:
EATEN was set in Newfoundland and my latest book
UPHEAVAL –see a review
here – is set in
Cape Breton Island, Nova Scotia. In UPHEAVAL, one of the issues I explore is ice entrapment of large whales, like North Atlantic right whales. I speculate in the story whether carcasses of ice-killed whales might provide a powerful enough attraction to lure Davis Strait polar bears down from Labrador and
the Strait of Belle Isle into the Gulf of St. Lawrence – and if they did, what might be the repercussions of that shift in distribution.
Here I argue that a novel is the appropriate place for this kind of speculation and researchers who offer such conjecture to the public in a way that conflates a science-informed guess with evidence-based fact risks eroding public trust in science.
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